Experimental estimate based on recent siren activity, time progression, and distance weighting.
This is not an official alert system. Do not rely on it for safety decisions. For official alerts, use approved civil defense sources.
The probability uses historical data: we compute the average time between consecutive sirens at each place, then see how the current "time since last siren" compares. Under the average gap → higher probability; over → lower. We also add time-of-day progression, distance from the last siren to your location, and a clustering bonus for multiple recent alerts. Result is smoothed and clamped between 0.5% and 99.4%.